The role of biomass to replace fossil fuels in a regional energy system: The case of west Sweden

Abstract

This paper analyses the potential role of biomass to meet regional CO2 emission reduction targets up to year 2050 in two counties in the west of Sweden. It is concluded that the region could double its production capacity of solid biomass to 2030, from 6 to 12 TWh. Modelling of the electricity sector in the region indicates that bio-based electricity generation in combined heat and power plants could almost triple by 2050 while at the same time replace fossil based generation in district heating. Biomass can also contribute to fuel shift in the transport sector. Yet, the transport sector requires a series of actions to significantly reduce demand in combination with use of electricity and biofuels and its transformation is obviously strongly linked to an overall transformation of the European transport sector. The total need for biomass could potentially increase from 14 TWh in 2010 to 48 TWh already from 2040, considering the electricity and transport sectors and under the assumption that large energy savings can be achieved in the building sector and that all fossil based heat generation can be replaced by biomass heating. Assuming that biomass also replace the fossil based raw materials used by the industry, including three refineries, requires 170 TWh biomass to be compared to the 130 TWh currently used for the entire Sweden.