Relationship between the precipitation variability in Montenegro and the Mediterranean oscillation

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean region on the precipitation in Montenegro. Nine precipitation parameters have been used in the analysis and the relationship has been investigated by the Mediterranean and West Mediterranean Oscillation change index (MO and WeMO). According to a 60 - year observed period (1951-2010), the research results show that nothing characteristic happens with seasonal and annual precipitation sums because the trend is mainly insignificant. However, precipitation extremes are getting more extreme, which corresponds with a general idea of global warming. Negative consequences of daily intensity increase and frequency of precipitation days above fixed and percentile thresholds have been recorded recently in the form of torrents, floods, intensive erosive processes, etc., but it should be pointed out that human factor is partly a cause of such events. The estimate of the influence of teleconnection patterns primarily related to the Mediterranean Basin has shown that their variability affects the observed precipitation parameters on the territory of Montenegro regarding both seasonal and annual sums and frequency and intensity of extreme events shown by climate indices.