Evaluating the Accuracy of 2020 Census Block-Level Estimates in California

Author:

Bozick Robert1ORCID,Burgette Lane F.1ORCID,Sharygin Ethan2ORCID,Shih Regina A.3ORCID,Weidmer Beverly4ORCID,Tzen Michael5ORCID,Kofner Aaron6ORCID,Brand Jennie E.7ORCID,Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram8ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, Sociology, and Statistics, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA

2. Population Research Center, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

3. Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

4. Survey Research Group, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA

5. California Center for Population Research, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

6. Research Programming Group, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA

7. Department of Sociology and California Center for Population Research, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

8. Department of Community Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health; and California Center for Population Research, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Abstract

Abstract In this study, we provide an assessment of data accuracy from the 2020 Census. We compare block-level population totals from a sample of 173 census blocks in California across three sources: (1) the 2020 Census, which has been infused with error to protect respondent confidentiality; (2) the California Neighborhoods Count, the first independent enumeration survey of census blocks; and (3) projections based on the 2010 Census and subsequent American Community Surveys. We find that, on average, total population counts provided by the U.S. Census Bureau at the block level for the 2020 Census are not biased in any consistent direction. However, subpopulation totals defined by age, race, and ethnicity are highly variable. Additionally, we find that inconsistencies across the three sources are amplified in large blocks defined in terms of land area or by total housing units, blocks in suburban areas, and blocks that lack broadband access.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Reference25 articles.

1. America Counts. (2021, August25). California remained most populous state but growth slowed last decade. U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/california-population-change-between-census-decade.html

2. Amos B. (2021). 2020 Census Block Crosswalk Data, V2 [Dataset]. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T9VMJO

3. Assessing the impact of differential privacy on measures of population and racial residential segregation;Asquith;Harvard Data Science Review,2022

4. Brown J. D. , HeggenessM. L., DorinskiS. M., WarrenL., & YiM. (2018). Understanding the quality of the alternative citizenship data sources of the 2020 census (Working Paper No. CES-18-38). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies. Retrieved from https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2018/CES-WP-18-38.pdf

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