Estimate of Structural Fractures in Wheat Culture and Production in Türkiye by Econometric Analysis

Abstract

This study, it was aimed to determine the amount of wheat fields planted in Türkiye and the structural breaks in wheat yield in the specified years. The data set obtained for this purpose was obtained from the wheat production and wheat cultivation area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 published by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). According to the estimation results; the data set obtained from the wheat planting area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given table were left from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2014, there was a structural break between these years. It was determined by the analysis that there was a structural break between these years, since the data set was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given chart were exceeded from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2015.