Long-term forecast of changes in soil erosion losses during spring snowmelt caused by climate within the plain part of Ukraine

Abstract

The paper deals with the forecast of changes in erosion soil losses during the spring snowmelt due to climate change in the regions of Ukraine in the middle of the 21st century (during 2031–2050) and at its end (during 2081–2100) compared with the values of the baseline period (1961–1990). The forecast is based on the use of the so-called “hydrometeorological factor of spring soil loss”. This factor is a part of the physical-statistical mathematical model of soil erosion lossduring spring snowmelt, developed at the Department of Physical Geography of Odesa I. I. Mechnikov State (since 2000 — National) University during the 1980s – 1990s. The long-term average value of the hydrometeorological factor is linearly related to the long-term average value of spring erosion soil loss. Therefore, the relative change in the hydrometeorological factor corresponds to the relative change in soil erosion losses. The developed methodology for assessing climate-induced changes in soil erosion losses in five regions of Ukraine (North, West, Center, East and South) takes into account the change in water equivalent of snow cover at the beginning of snow melting, the change in surface runoff and its turbidity, and changes in soil erodibility. The forecast of changes in erosion soil loss was carried out using projections of annual and monthly average air temperatures and precipitation for 2031–2050 and 2081–2100 in accordance with scenario A1B from AR4 of the IPCC. As a result of the research, it was found that both in the middle and at the end of the 21st century a decrease in the rate of soil erosion during the period of spring snowmelt is expected. During 2031–2050, the expected soil losses will be less than corresponding baseline period values within the West region by 79%, within the North and East regions by 81%, and within the Center region by 85%. In the South region, the spring soil losses will be zero due to the lack of snow cover. During 2081–2100 snow cover will be absent not only in the South region, but also in the Center and East regions. In the regions North and West snow cover will remain, but the spring soil erosion losses will decrease by dozens of times and will be so small that they can also be ignored.