Forecast landslide activity in the zones of technogenic geochemical anomalies of urban areas based on remote sensing data

Abstract

The analysis and forecast of landslide activity on the territories of cities is an actual task. Remote sensing methods are successfully used to solve a whole range of tasks: from classification to modeling. The possibilities of interpreting data are expanding. The processing involves standard methods of statistical research, methods of theories of fuzzy sets, pattern recognition, and others. This paper describes the experience of involving the method of grouping arguments into a prediction model. Firstly, an irregular time series of values of reflection coefficient on areas of active development of the landslide process is investigated. According to the results of the prognosis, it is proved that in the nearest future changes in solar activity (11 - year cycle) will not lead to activation of the process. Secondly, the forecast of the activation of the landslide process under the influence of man-made factors was fulfilled. The connection between the content of readily soluble salts in the pores of forest soils of the aeration zone and the values of the coefficient of reflection and. The model extends the possibilities of using the method of group consideration of arguments for mapping zones of landslide activity in sections of man-made geochemical anomalies. The analysis of the model shows that the connection is. In the future it is possible to determine certain values of salt content and values of reflection coefficients, which will be indicators of the probability of activating the landslide process in other conditions.