Forecasts and demographic development of the population of Fergana Valley regions of Uzbekistan until 2040

Abstract

The world's population is growing rapidly and today exceeds 7.8 billion people. World population growth is expected to slow down slowly in the future. A decade ago, the world's population increased by 1.24 percent; today it is 1.1 percent, an increase of 83 million a year. The world's population is expected to reach 8.6 billion by 2030. (UNFPA 2015). This creates a regional imbalance between population growth and the development of employment, production and social infrastructure. Information is needed on the creation of new jobs in the regions, for planning the construction of preschool institutions, schools, higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, how many children will be able to attend preschool institutions in the future, how many children will reach school age and how many children will be transfered to specialized secondary and higher education, how much the labor force will increase. The population of Uzbekistan is constantly growing. From 1991 to 2020, the country's population increased by 1.7 times. For comparison: during this period, the population of neighboring Kyrgyzstan increased by 1.3 times, the population of Kazakhstan – by 1.02 times, the population of Tajikistan – by 1.5 times, the population of Turkmenistan – by 1.4 times. During the years of independence in Uzbekistan, special attention was paid to demographic issues based on the population and the human factor, the principles of a healthy mother and a healthy child. The course of demographic processes changes in accordance with the natural, socio-economic geographical conditions of the regions (Tojieva Z. N. 2019). The Fergana Valley is the most densely populated region of Uzbekistan with a small territory, a large demographic load and the largest demographic potential (Abdullaev O. 2000). Land resources with limited, high demographic pressure require research aimed at identifying, predicting and preventing future adverse events specific to the development of demographic processes in the regions of the valley. The article makes a forecast for 2025–2040 and draws conclusions using the method of age shift of the population of regions, districts and cities of the Fergana Valley, demographic regions and gender and age composition.