Time series analysis of karst breakdown development on the potassium salt deposit areas within Precarpathian region

Abstract

The work is devoted to the analysis of karst breakdown development over time within the area of the Kalush-Golynske and Stebnytske potassium salt deposits. A study of the relationship between the development of karst breakdowns with the factors influencing their development in natural conditions and in the conditions of natural-technogenic systems is presented. Time series of karst breakdowns in the Kalush-Golynske and Stebnytske deposits of potassium salt were selected for the investigation. The time series reflect the number of formed failures of the earth’s surface due to karst processes. Climatic (average annual temperature and annual precipitation), heliophysical (solar activity), seismic (number and energy of earthquakes), hydrogeological (groundwater levels) were chosen as such factors. Breakdown phenomena, which are included in the time series of their longterm dynamics, are associated with different hydrodynamic zones of karst processes. For these zones, the indirectness degree of the influence of the selected for the analysis factors is different and the meteorological parameters are more effective in the supply zone, seismic factors work in all zones. Statistical methods such as correlation analysis, calculation of autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis are used for the analysis of the time series. Statistical regularities in the series of karst breakdown development for Kalush-Golynske and Stebnytske potassium salt deposits and between the selected natural time factors and karst series have been established, which allows asserting the indirect influence of natural component of karst activation. The presence of periodic components in the long-term series of karst breakdowns should be associated with the natural factors that indirectly activate karst processes. These factors should be investigated and taken into account when creating temporal prognostic models for the development of karst breakdown processes within the deposits of potassium salt of Precarpathia.