Computer model for identification of groups of risk for malignant neoplasms of fe-male sex sphere using questionnaire

Abstract

Aim. To identify predictors of malignant neoplasms (MN) of female sex sphere, to evaluate their sensitivity and specificity, to calculate prognostic coefficient (PC) and to create a computer program on its basis for automated processing of questionnaire data for arrangement of groups of risk for regular medical check-ups through the Internet (without participation of a physician) or on computers of women’s health clinics. Materials and Methods. The work was performed in  two steps. The 1st step was an open questioning survey of 226 women, divided into 2 groups: the 1st group included women with MN of the sex sphere (n=125); the 2nd group included conventionally healthy women. The questionnaire included 82 positions: 19 open questions  and 63 questions with a choice of an answer. The second stage consisted in a «blind» questioning of 120 women who visited a women’s health clinic. The questionnaire included 18 earlier identified predictors. A multifactor model was developed on the basis of questionnaire data and also using the material of medical histories and of histological examinations. Results. Using ROC-analysis of the questionnaire data, 18 significant predictors of MN of female sex sphere were identified. On their basis a formula was derived for calculation of PC for the risk of development of MN of female sex sphere with 72.8% sensitivity and 95% specificity, which was used for creation of a computer model for automated processing of questionnaire data with the aim of identification of groups of risks and for  medical check-ups without participation of physicians through Internet sites of hospitals. Then, in result of closed questioning of women (n=120) by 18 predictors, 70 women got into a group of risk, in 47 of them (67%) MN of sex sphere were identified, 50 fell into a group of conventionally healthy women, of them 45 (90%) were healthy, and 5 (10%) had MN. Conclusions. 1) Multifactor statistical ROC-analysis of 82 questions and answers permitted to identify 18 predictors of MN of female sex sphere which can be used to scientifically substantiate identification of groups of risk for organization of regular prophylactic measures. 2) The conducted work permitted to create a computer program for automated processing of questionnaires for formation of groups of risk and for regular medical check-ups. We believe that introduction of questionnaire screening through the Internet with subsequent computer processing of the results without participation of physicians with permit to increase the coverage of women’s population of the Russian Federation with prophylactic measures against MN of the female sex sphere and to provide more time for receipt of primary patients, to simplify the work for creation of data base, and to increase the oncological alertness of women’s population.