STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON IMPACT OF MEASLES AMONG CHILDREN IN OBUDU LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF CROSS RIVER STATE

Abstract

Measles is an infectious illness caused by the rubeola virus and it spreads either through direct contact with a person who has the virus or through droplets in the air. The study sought to determine the linear trends of reported cases of measles,  to also determine the gender that suffer most on the reported cases of measles in Obudu Local Government Area of Cross River state and forecast future occurrence of the disease. Data used for the study were  secondary which were gathered  from General Hospital Obudu,  from the year 2000 to 2020. Descriptive Statistics where calculated for each variable which shows the values of minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviation of each of the variable. The trend analysis for immunized case of measles shows a positive trend which implies increase in immunization. The trend equation for the disease is given by Yt = 367.1-2.89094*t. and trend analysis for reported cases of measles shows a negative trend which implies that cases of measles is decreasing. The trend equation of the disease is given by Yt=93.16-1.24131*t. the trend for the gender that suffer most shows that female suffer most in the reported cases of the disease.  Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (1, 0, 1) and (2, 1, 0) was used for forecasting for the future occurrence of the disease for the years 2021 to 2025 in Obudu Local Government Area.  The result  shows that 2021 recorded the highest number of cases whereas 2025 could be recorded the lowest cases.