OBESITY PREVALENCE IN POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: BEFORE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract

Significance. World health organization (WHO) has announced global epidemic of obesity that has affected millions of people all over the world. Obesity becomes more and more relevant and constitutes a life-threatening condition for people regardless of their place of residence, age or gender. Rising prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents attracts higher attention due to the fact that childhood obesity is a substantial prognostic factor of obesity in adulthood and a risk of disability due to severe comorbidities. Increase in obesity prevalence to the scale of epidemic in different age groups may lead to further life expectancy reduction especially reduction in healthy life expectancy, and substantial increase in years lost due to disability. The study purpose was to analyze obesity prevalence among the Russian population by age groups in 1995-2019 in the federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation and to forecast indicators' values until 2030. Material and methods. Official statistics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation – Form N12 of the Federal statistical observation for 1995-2019. The study used the following methods of continuous statistical observation: dynamic series indicators (growth rate, rate of increment, visibility indicators), specific gravity index, direct ranking method, and time series forecasting method. Results. Over the past 25 years, obesity prevalence among population increased 3 times, in adults over 18 years – 7 times, in children 0-14 years – 4 times, and in adolescents 15-17 years – 6 times. Since 2005, a sharp increase in obesity among adolescents with a significant gap compared to indicators in other age groups has been reported. The highest share of obesity cases is registered among adult population (78%), with half of them being people aged over 55-60. Children account for 15% of obesity cases and adolescents - for 7%. The highest share of children with obesity is registered in the Kaluga region (37%), the lowest one– in the Tyumen region (7%). As to adolescents aged 15-17 years, the highest share is registered in the Jewish autonomous region (14%), while the lowers one- in the Chechen Republic (2%), in adults over 18 years – the Altai territory (91%) and the Jewish autonomous region (50%), respectively. Regional heterogeneity in prevalence of obesity is observed across all age groups. At average, obesity prevalence rate is 1500 per 100,000 population. The highest prevalence rates registered in Altai Territory (5539.4 per 100,000) and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District (3527.2), the lowest - in Moscow (606.2) and Primorsky Territory (549.2). The Altai Territory, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Tyumen, Kurgan and Samara regions are the top-five regions in terms of obesity prevalence; while the Jewish Autonomous Region, Kaliningrad Region, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Moscow and Primorsky Territory are the last five in the ranking. Projection of indicators until 2030 shows that obesity prevalence in all age groups can double even under the low (favourable) forecast scenario. Conclusion. According to current and prognostic trends in obesity prevalence, it is necessary to strengthen measures to control obesity across all age groups, primarily in children. Scope of application. The study results can be used by regional healthcare authorities to plan and implement regional programs aimed at obesity prevention and management.