Effect of Route Choice Models on Estimating Network Capacity Reliability

Abstract

The issue of planning for adequate capacity in transportation systems to accommodate growing traffic demand is becoming a serious problem. Recent research has introduced "capacity reliability" as a new network performance index. Capacity reliability is defined as the probability that a network can accommodate a certain volume of traffic demand at a required service level given variable arc capacities, while accounting for drivers' route choice behavior. Previous papers on this topic provide a comprehensive methodology for assessing capacity reliability along with extensive simulation results. However, an important issue that remains is what type of route choice model should be used to model driver behavior in estimating network capacity reliability. Three different route choice models (one deterministic and two stochastic models) are compared, and the effect of using each of these models on estimating network capacity reliability is examined.