Forecasting Bicycle and Pedestrian Travel: State of the Practice and Research Needs

Abstract

A review has been implemented on the state of the practice and research needs have been identified on methods for forecasting bicycle and pedestrian travel. The focus is on methods that forecast how many people will use a new bicycle or pedestrian facility or how many additional people will walk or bicycle in response to facility or network improvements. Overall, there appears to be a shortage of methods that practitioners with limited technical resources can use but are nonetheless accurate enough for planning purposes. In addition, existing research on the factors influencing the decision to walk or bicycle often has not been translated into usable forecasting methods. Three major recommendations are made. First, in the short term, a sketch-planning manual for bicycle and pedestrian forecasting is needed to give planners access to the basic data, tools, and methods required to estimate future demand. Second, further research is needed into specific factors influencing bicycle and pedestrian travel behavior, with an emphasis on identifying key factors that can be included in forecasting models. Third, bicycle and pedestrian considerations should be integrated into mainstream transportation models that traditionally have focused on vehicle travel. Inclusion of nonmotorized modes in travel models will improve capabilities for forecasting both motorized and nonmotorized travel and will help place bicycles and pedestrians on a "level playing field" with motorized modes in transportation planning.