Application of Fuzzy Logic to Safety Risk Assessment of China's Maritime Passages

Abstract

The maritime system has a high level of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to assess its safety. This paper proposes an improved formal safety assessment (FSA) method based on fuzzy logic and employing if–then rules, which model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge and reasoning processes. A fuzzy expert system is then designed to address FSA's risk assessment step. An investigation is performed to gain expert knowledge, which is essential to building this system. An example that assesses the safety of Chinese maritime passages is used to illustrate the methodology. The method is effective in the solution of problems with high uncertainty. Finally, suggestions are given to enhance the level of safety.