Investigating the Truth of Heinrich's Pyramid in Offshore Helicopter Transportation

Abstract

Several hazardous industries have embraced Heinrich's premise that incidents of negligible safety consequences are precursors to accidents in a statistical sense. However, in few such industries has research verified the truth of that assumption. This paper explores the relationships between accidents and reported incidents in the context of oil and gas–related offshore helicopter operations by using the accident investigation reports published by the UK Air Accident Investigation Branch and the incidents filed under the British Mandatory Occurrence Reporting Scheme between 1997 and 2010. Classification frameworks were developed to enable the independent analysis of accidents and incidents in relation to specific variables of interest. Frequencies and statistical associations that could have indicated the precursor relationship were explored. From the results of the analysis, the paper highlights potentially severe shortcomings in the assumptions underpinning incident data collection as well as the process with which incident data are generated. For example, the paper unveils the existence of sudden failures that cannot be reliably anticipated or reported and draws attention to a potentially flawed incident-reporting culture. Given the results, the paper informs stakeholders in the industry of specific initiatives to ensure that the right lessons are learned from past occurrences (e.g., through ways of collecting incident data that will not rely solely on reporters) and how these could be used to inform future interventions, for example, through the analysis of potential consequences of incidents, as a complement to the analysis of frequencies.