Disaggregated Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Urban Travel Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Abstract

A disaggregate approach is proposed for estimating travel-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the individual level by using an in-depth multiday activity-based survey in Quebec City, Canada. A random-effect model is then estimated to quantify the impact on emissions of individual and household socioeconomic characteristics as well as urban form and transit supply indicators. The model results are obtained in terms of total individual emissions and by trip-end activity purpose such as work, leisure, and shopping. According to the results, female respondents produced, on average, emissions that were 22% lower than those of men. Evidence of economies of scale was found within households in the production of travel GHG emissions. A couple would produce only 64% more emissions than a single person. It was found that both urban form and transit supply around the residence have a significant impact on GHG emissions, though this impact is relatively limited; this finding implies that drastic land use changes would be required to significantly cut travel emissions. For example, a 10% increase over the mean in residential or job density would lower emissions by less than 2%. This result is consistent with recent studies examining the relationship between travel and land use.