Modeling and Estimation of Headway Distributions

Abstract

A simple analysis to derive Branston’s generalized queueing model for (time-) headway distributions is presented. It is assumed that the total headway is the sum of two independent random variables: the empty zone and the free-flowing headway. The parameters of the model can be used to examine various characteristics of both the road (e.g., capacity) and driver-vehicle combinations (e.g., following behavior). Furthermore, the model can be applied to vehicle generation in microscopic simulation models and to safety analysis. To estimate the different parameters in the model, a new estimation method is proposed. This method, which was developed on the basis of Fourier-series analysis, was successfully applied to measurements collected on two-lane rural roads. The method was found to be both computationally less demanding and more robust than traditional parameter techniques procedures, such as maximum likelihood. In addition, the method provides more accurate results. Parameters in the model were examined with the developed estimation method. Estimates of these parameters at a specific period and a specific measurement location were to some extent transferable to other periods and locations. Application of the method to road capacity estimation is discussed.