Failure Probability of Resurfaced Preventive Maintenance Treatments

Abstract

This study evaluated the effectiveness of various pavement preventive maintenance treatments through investigation of the failure probability of different performance indicators, including roughness, alligator cracking, longitudinal cracking, transverse cracking, rutting, and friction. For the study, 354 resurfacing pavement preventive maintenance projects were collected from the Long-Term Pavement Performance program database, including ones that used thin asphalt overlay, chip seal, slurry seal, and fog seal. Survival models were employed to conduct the analyses because of their capability to capture unobserved failure events and to systematically incorporate influencing factors (e.g., traffic, climate, pavement structural capacity, and pretreatment pavement performance). The statistical analysis showed that poor pretreatment performance was a significant factor in treatment failure and that preventive treatments would not be effective on pavement in poor condition. Stronger structural capacity of pavement greatly reduced fatigue cracking on the treatment surface: the bending of asphalt layer was alleviated through stronger base and subgrade support. Climate factors had a significant influence on the failure of transverse cracking and rutting and on friction loss. A warmer climate tended to cause permanent deformation and friction loss, probably as the result of asphalt softening. In general, chip seal was the most effective overall, followed by thin asphalt overlay, slurry seal, and fog seal. However, chip seal was vulnerable to friction loss: the aggregates could be pulled out as a result of the loss of asphalt adhesion.