Alternative Futures for Integrated Transportation and Land Use Models Contrasted with Trend-Delphi Models: Portland Oregon Metro Results

Abstract

Since completing a trend-delphi–based regional forecast and transportation plan in 1996, the Portland, Oregon, Metro has developed an integrated transportation and land use model (MetroScope). The model is being used to explore several regional growth management options as well as to produce a new regional forecast and transportation plan. Comparing MetroScope results with the previous forecast reveals that integrated transportation and land use models may produce different results in regard to trip length, vehicle kilometers traveled, traffic congestion levels, mode and route choice, and employment and household locations. Compared with trend models, integrated models robustly respond to alternative land regulation and transportation investment policy options, allowing planners and officials an opportunity to evaluate the differences in land use and transportation arising from different policy choices. Moreover, the integrated models produce far more data on factors such as real estate prices, tenure choice, residential and nonresidential real estate output, land consumption, redevelopment, and density.