Mobility Patterns of the Next Generation of Older Persons

Abstract

Mobility patterns of the next generation of older people may be significantly different from today’s older persons. And it is likely that more older people may depend on automobiles for their daily activities. While the types of traffic safety-related problems associated with older drivers are fairly well defined, the questions that remain are about the magnitude: Will large numbers of older drivers self-test off the system? or Will many more older persons driving more often and longer distances produce even more serious safety-related problems? Differences between mobility patterns of today’s older people and those predicted for the next generation of older people are examined. The overall finding is that as the older population continues to shift to rural areas, small cities, and suburbs, there is likely to be increased per capita travel (i.e., higher exposure), even though the number of trips may be lower. It seems likely that a considerable percentage of this travel will be on the least safe parts of the highway system (i.e., local streets and roads). Although overall accident rates may remain much the same or drop slightly for the older person, the greater number of persons in the older-age cohorts and the increased mileage driven by them will likely lead to significant increases in the number of accidents experienced by this group and in general.