Policy Analysis Using the Sacramento MEPLAN Land Use–Transportation Interaction Model

Abstract

A land use and transportation interaction model was developed for the Sacramento, California, region, using the MEPLAN framework. The model represents land markets directly together with location-choice processes of different industry and household categories and the interactions among them. These resulting economic interactions lead to trip matrixes that are assigned to a multimodal, capacity-restrained transportation network, generating travel times and disutilities that influence the location-choice process in the period from 1990 to 2015. A range of different policy options is simulated for that period. Five different scenarios are compared with a trend scenario, three representing different long- and short-term government transportation supply scenarios, one representing incentives and disincentives to encourage land use patterns complementary to an improved transit system, and one combining the land-incentive scenario with higher prices for private vehicle use. The scenario predictions differ in mode choice, firm location, residential location, development patterns, vehicle kilometers traveled, and land rents. Various land uses are seen to be bidding against each other, and the differences in spatial arrangements between scenarios are quite complex and demonstrate the richness of the model. Certain changes take time to develop, demonstrating the need for a long-term approach to planning.