Travel Behavior in Aging Societies

Abstract

The number of older Americans is predicted to increase significantly over the next 30 years. Germany has already experienced a similar challenge over recent decades. In 2005, the share of population 65 years and older was 20% in that country, a share predicted for the United States around 2030. Both countries have among the highest motorization rates in the world, and almost all adults are licensed drivers. A comparison of the United States and Germany can provide important lessons about determinants of travel behavior of the elderly. This study traced changes in travel behavior over time in both countries using German national travel surveys from 1982 and 2002 and U.S. national travel surveys from 1983 and 2001. The study then investigated differences in determinants of travel behavior between the two countries through a multiple regression analysis based on the 2002 German travel survey and the 2001 U.S. travel survey. In both countries all social groups—but most markedly the elderly—were found to be more mobile today than 20 years ago. In both countries, travel behavior of 45 to 64 year olds in the early 1980s was a good predictor of travel behavior of 65+ year olds in 2001. Once travel behavior is adopted, it seems to carry on into older age. Besides similar trends in each country, elderly Americans were found to make more trips by car than Germans. This difference held even when controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors and spatial development patterns. Transportation policies can help explain this difference. Compared with the United States, policies in Germany make car use more expensive and particularly more difficult in cities. At the same time, public policies make cycling and public transportation easy to use, cheap, safe, convenient, and accessible transportation alternatives for a less car-dependent lifestyle into old age.