Variation of Impact of Cold Temperature and Snowfall and Their Interaction on Traffic Volume

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed investigation of highway traffic variations with severity of cold, the amount of snow, and various combinations of cold and snow intensities. Separate analyses for starting, middle, and ending months of winter seasons are conducted to study the variations in traffic-weather relationships within the winter season. The study is based on hourly traffic flow data from 350 permanent traffic counter sites located on the provincial highway system of Alberta, Canada, and weather data obtained from nearby Environment Canada weather stations, from 1995 to 2005. Multiple regression analysis is used in the modeling process. The model parameters include three sets of variables: the amount of snowfall as a quantitative variable, categorized cold as a dummy variable, and an interaction variable formed by the product of these two variables. The study results indicate that the association of highway traffic flow with cold and snow varies with day of week, hour of day, and severity of weather conditions. A reduction of 1% to 2% in traffic volume for each centimeter of snowfall is observed when the mean temperature is above 0°C. For the days with zero precipitation, reductions in traffic volume due to mild and severe cold are 1% and 31%, respectively. An additional reduction of 0.5% to 3% per centimeter of snowfall results when snowfall occurs during severe cold conditions. Study results show lesser impact of adverse weather conditions on traffic during severe winter months (mid-November to mid-March) and the months thereafter compared with early (starting) winter months.