Time Series Comparison of Joint Mode and Destination Choice Models in Changing Transportation Environment

Abstract

Following the analysis of household auto and motorcycle ownership and mode choice models presented in 2012, results are presented on joint mode and destination choice models developed on the basis of two large-scale travel surveys conducted 8 years apart. The models are compared, and implications of changes in the Jakarta, Indonesia, metropolitan area in the past decade are discussed. Interpretation of the effects of different types of variables, including basic travel, household and individual characteristics, and zonal attributes in the models estimated for 2002 and 2010, led to insights relative to changes in the transportation environment and an increase in the complexity of travel behavior in Jakarta. As long as the context of the society does not change, both models should remain unchanged with fixed parameters over a period of time. However, the models that were estimated on the basis of the surveys conducted nearly a decade apart indicated quite different parameters with different degrees of significance. As found in the comparison made in 2012, transferability of those disaggregate choice models may not always apply in urban areas of the developing world such as Jakarta, even though the model structure may remain the same. Such implications may also be worth studying for other urban areas of the developing world, although similarities may be restricted to regions that share modal and cultural norms.