Long‐term changes of wind resources and its impact on wind power development under climate change in China

Abstract

AbstractThe development of wind energy is indispensable in the pursuit of global carbon neutrality. This article's analysis of observational data across China reveals the annual average wind speed declined at a rate of −0.167 m · s−1 decade−1 between 1981 and 2014. This rate is 33 times faster than projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme. We propose a novel wind power scale estimation method based on annual average wind speed, suitable for assessing climate change impacts. Considering China's planned wind power generation in 2030, climate change may increase the required wind installed capacity by over 25% under the observed trend scenario. In contrast, historical average and CMIP scenarios could substantially overestimate wind potential while underestimating the necessary future wind power development scale. Climate change poses potential adverse impacts on China's carbon peak goals, necessitating targeted measures to mitigate these effects.