ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND BREAKPOINTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH INDICATORS IN SPAIN, IN THE PERIOD 1995 TO 2017

Abstract

Occupational accidents pose considerable burdens to people, businesses and society in general. The analysis of trends in the evolution of time series related to occupational health indicators is an important tool to help determining the extent to which economic or structural changes in the sectors of industry, agriculture, construction and services have influenced the behavior of these indicators. Trend analysis is defined as a process of estimating gradual changes in a series of observations over time, while breakpoint analysis allows to detect abrupt changes in time series. In the literature, different nonparametric and parametric techniques are used to estimate breakpoints and trends. The presented study focuses on the analysis of occupational accidents in Spain in the period 1995-2017. The analysis covers a period of exceptional instability in the Spanish labor market, including a period of economic growth and deep recession. These economic changes brought changes in the composition of the labor market. In the paper, the main indicators used in the statistics of work accidents (Fatal Accident Rate, Incidence Index, Gravity Index, etc.) are analyzed in order to detect trends and changes in them, emphasizing its relationship with risk metrics. The results obtained in the case of application show that the economic and structural changes have affected in a different way the trends of the indicators analyzed. Key Words: Work accidents; Risks evaluation; risk factor's; prevention of occupational hazards; occupational health; labor statistics