How Much Should Medicare Pay For Drugs?

Author:

Newhouse Joseph P.

Publisher

Health Affairs (Project Hope)

Subject

Health Policy

Reference17 articles.

1. Because multiple PBMs invite efforts by each PBM to enroll good risks and avoid bad ones, I prefer that PBMs bid for temporary local monopolies, just as employers only contract with one PBM at a time. See H.A. Huskamp et al. “The Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit: How Will the Game Be Played?”Health Affairs(Mar/Apr 2000 ): 8 –23.

2. P. Kanavos and U.E. Reinhardt, “Reference Pricing for Drugs: Is It Compatible with U.S. Health Care?”Health Affairs(May/June 2003 ): 16 –30.

3. Recent estimates place the average R&D cost to bring a drug to market around $800 million. J.S. DiMasi et al. “The Price of Innovation: New Estimates of Drug Development Costs,”Journal of Health Economics(March 2003 ): 151 –185. Although some believe that the $800 million figure is too high, it is still clear that there are substantial fixed costs.

4. Byprobabilistic basis,I mean that the expected revenues, accounting for the likelihood of success, will exceed the costs of development. Because successful drugs must cover the development costs of unsuccessful drugs, successful drugs will have to more than recover their costs of development for the firm to stay in business. Moreover, this must be true at each stage of the development process, since a manufacturer can abandon development at any time if it receives new information suggesting the drug will not recover investments that must yet be made to bring a drug to market. R.G. Frank, “New Estimates of Drug Development Costs,”Journal of Health Economics(March 2003 ): 325 –330.

5. R.G. Frank , “Prescription Drug Prices: Why Do Some Pay More than Others Do?”Health Affairs(Mar/Apr 2001 ): 115 –128. Maintaining different prices within a country requires that there be no arbitrage across the consumer groups.

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