Shy Trumpers and Live Callers : An Analysis of The U.S. 2020 Polls-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Shy Trumpers and Live Callers : An Analysis of The U.S. 2020 Polls

Published:2023 Issue:1 Volume:1 Page:
ISSN:
Container-title:Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion
language:en
Short-container-title:JPSPO

Author:

Thies Clifford F.

Abstract

This study uses multiple regression to analyze more than 1600 state and nationwide polls released from April to November 2020 concerning the U.S. Presidential election of that year. The study finds that sample composition and survey-taking technology affected the results of these polls. Specifically, polls that over-sampled Democrats and polls that used live-callers were biased in favor of Biden. Live-caller bias almost certainly argues that polls suffered from Shy Trumpers. In addition, many poll-takers are found to be biased relative to a reference set of polls, independent of sample composition and the use of live-callers.

Publisher

Gexinonline Publications

Subject

General Medicine,Microbiology (medical),Immunology,Immunology and Allergy

Reference25 articles.

1. Druke, G. & Silver, N. (2020). Politics Podcast: There just isn’t good evidence that ‘shy’ Trump voters exist. Fivethirtyeight, 30 Oct.

2. Stanton, Z. (2020).‘People are going to be shocked’: Return of the ‘shy’ Trump voter. Politico, 29 Oct.

3. Hopkins, D. (2009). No more Wilder effect, never a Whitman effect: When and why polls mislead about black and female candidates. Journal of Politics, 71(3), 769-78.

4. Kline, R., & Stout, C. (2009). Measuring Polling Bias in 2008: The Bradley Effect and Related Issues. Center for the Study of Democracy, April 27.

5. Stromberg, D. (2008). How Large is the Bradley Effect and Does it Matter for Obama? Vox, 3 Nov.