1. Informed Corporate Credit Market before Monetary Policy Surprises: Explaining Pre-FOMC Stock Market Movements
2. Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium
3. Unlike the BEA, I won't be able to go back and revise these remarks. [Laughter] Total GDP this morning came in at 3.5 percent. That was 0.9 percentage point stronger than we had forecast in the Greenbook. There were really two sources of our miss in the fourth quarter. Of that miss, 0.5 was the net export component, which Karen will speak about in a second, and 0.4 was nonfarm inventory investment. So perhaps Karen will give the quick story on the net export side, and then I'll complete the report MR;Stockton Mr;this was sort of done on the fly