1. Since Israel itself possesses nuclear weapons, it is difficult to foresee how nuclear acquisition on the part of Egypt or Saudi Arabia would further their goal of eradicating the Jewish state. Taking stock, the relative power of each U.S. prot�g� in the region vis-�-vis Iran is not vastly different, the extent and escalatory potential (for the United States) of their security goals is also of similar magnitude, but the level of U.S. commitment to their survival is higher in the case of Turkey, which is a NATO member. This means that U.S. counter-proliferation efforts are more likely to succeed vis-�-vis Turkey than either Egypt or Saudi Arabia. Between these two, we believe Saudi Arabia, the most militarily powerful of the two --and therefore the most likely to possess the opportunity to proliferate even if the United States threatens to abandon it --is the U.S. prot�g� in the Middle East most likely to nuclearize in response to Iranian nuclear acquisition;Finally;terms of the extent and entrapment potential of these three U.S. allies' security goals, Turkey possesses security goals that Washington does not share --namely the protection of Turkish Cyprus --but it is difficult to see how these goals would benefit from an independent Turkish nuclear deterrent,2009
2. For one, Saudi supplies of advanced conventional weaponry largely depend on Washington's willingness to sell them. Furthermore, it is likely that, given U.S. interests in protecting the stability of Saudi oil supplies, Washington will be willing to extend a formal guarantee to Riyadh against Iranian nuclear coercion. Both these measures would contribute to diminishing Saudi willingness to nuclearize. At the same time, Washington should make sure all these commitments to Saudi security are conditional on the abandonment of the country's nuclear ambitions;Still, we believe the United States possesses considerable leverage over Saudi Arabia, likely to allow it to avert proliferation to this prot�g� even in the aftermath of a putative Iranian nuclear test
3. Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted;David Albright;Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,1998