1. estimates bership in the CU will have to be made only after a careful weighing of potential gains in the formal sector compared to potential losses in the informal one. 3. Protective trade policies in the region do not seem effective either for export promotion (almost no manufactured exports), or for import substitution (as the large scale of informal trade suggests). This should be considered seriously, when major trade policy changes in the region are on the horizon, including the formation of the Single Economic Space uniting Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia and, possibly;Million US$ Sources: COMTRADE, national statistical agencies, and author's