Labor force dynamics and economic performance: A case of Nigeria, India, and China

Abstract

Aim/purpose – This study investigated the nexus between labor force dynamics and economic performance in Nigeria, India, and China. Design/methodology – The study used annual time series data spanning from 1991 to 2021 obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI). After the unit root stationarity test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used for the analysis. Findings – Findings from the study support a positive short-run relationship between labor force participation and economic growth in all three countries. However, in China, population growth impacts the economy positively in the long run, while life expectancy at birth negatively impacts the economy in the short run. This is because China’s popula- tion is aging. In India, employment in the industrial and service sectors positively impacts the economy in the long run. In the short run, life expectancy at birth influences the economy negatively. Furthermore, in Nigeria, the industrial and service sector employment impact the economy negatively in the long run, though there are positive effects in the short run. Research implications – The Indian government needs policy reforms in the areas of education and health to take advantage of the potential of its youthful population. The Nigerian government requires implementing a wide range of education, investment, and employment-generating policies to foster tangible economic growth. These reforms could help both India and Nigeria take advantage of the potential for demographic change. The Chinese government, already having policy reforms in place, is geared towards improved fertility and population growth for economic growth in the near future. These policies, coupled with the study’s findings, could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the implications of demographic change on economic performance. Originality/value contributions – This analysis explored and compared the demographic potentials of two young countries (India and Nigeria) and an aging, wealthy economy (China) from the working class. Policy lessons for the attainment of demographic divi- dends are borrowed from China. Keywords: labor force, economic performance, demographic change, population dynamics, ARDL model. JEL Codes: J10, J11