An Initialization Model with Reference to Finite Number of Failures

Abstract

<p>In order to manage the expressway assets, it is important to properly predict the scale of failures occurring in infrastructures in future. In this paper, the authors propose an initialization time model to predict the scale of failures. Specifically, the number of latent failure places where there are possibility of failure occurrence is assumed to be followed to Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a time-dependent probability of a failure occurrence in latent failure places is expressed by using Weibull deterioration hazard model. In consequence, an initialization time model is formulated as a mixed probability model. Lastly, the authors discuss the usefulness of the model in this study through the empirical analysis of actual expressway assets.</p>