Number needed to screen: lives saved over 20 years of follow-up in mammographic screening-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Number needed to screen: lives saved over 20 years of follow-up in mammographic screening

Published:2004-09-01 Issue:3 Volume:11 Page:126-129
ISSN:0969-1413
Container-title:Journal of Medical Screening
language:en
Short-container-title:J Med Screen

Author:

Tabar L¹,Vitak B²,Yen MFA³,Chen HHT⁴,Smith RA⁵,Duffy SW⁶

Affiliation:

1. Director, Mammography Department, Central Hospital, Falun, Sweden

2. Head of Mammography, Department of Medical Radiology, University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden

3. Cancer Research UK, Department of Epidemiology, Mathematics and Statistics, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London, UK

4. Professor of Epidemiology, Institute of Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

5. Director, Cancer Control Sciences Department, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

6. Professor of Cancer Screening , Cancer Research UK, Department of Epidemiology, Mathematics and Statistics, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London,Charterhouse Square, London, UK

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the number needed to screen with mammography to save one life, based on a stated amount of screening activity and long-term follow-up for breast cancer death. Setting: A randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening for breast cancer, with 77,080 women invited to screening and 55,985 not invited. The invited group was offered screening for seven years. Follow-up continued for a total of just over 20 years. Methods: Number needed to screen for seven years to save one life over 20 years was calculated by dividing the number screened (not the number invited) by the total number of lives saved. Similarly, we calculated the number of mammographic examinations required to save one life. Results: We estimate that the number of women needed to screen for seven years to save one life over 20 years is 465 (95% CI 324–819). The number of mammographic examinations needed to save one life was 1499 (95% CI 1046–2642). Conclusions: The number needed to screen to save one life is smaller than has been reported in the past. Mammographic screening is effective in absolute terms as well as relative. Long-term follow-up allowed us to estimate the absolute benefit with greater accuracy.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Health Policy

Link

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1258/0969141041732175

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