Spatial analysis of primary and secondary syphilis incidence in China, 2004-2010

Abstract

China has recently experienced an increase in the incidence of syphilis. Effective spatial monitoring of syphilis incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention programmes. This study monitored county-level primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis incidence rates for all of mainland China by examining spatial patterns. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods were used to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of syphilis cases. During the seven-year study period, the average annual P&S syphilis incidence was 8.82 cases per 100,000 people. Using Empirical Bayes smoothed rates, the local Moran test identified many areas of high syphilis risk (all P values ≤0.01). The number of high-risk counties increased from 73 counties in 2004 to 134 counties in 2010. An eastern coastal cluster of high-risk counties persisted throughout 2004-2010. ESDA methods can assist public health officials in identifying high-risk areas. Allocating more resources to high-risk areas could more effectively reduce syphilis incidence.