Uncertainty of Outcome and Attendance: Evidence from Russian Football

Abstract

In this study, we estimate an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH). Data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL) are used. These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioral pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between attendance and uncertainty is U-shaped. We observe some evidence that attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a home team win.