EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF THE ARMED CONFLICT ON THE STATE OF ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS

Abstract

The article calculated the indicators of economic security of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and assessed the impact of the armed conflict on the state of economic security in the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It is investigated that the deterioration of economic parameters of the development of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions after the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbas, largely caused a decrease in the level of economic security of Ukraine. The presence of such an impact is confirmed by the results of a pair correlation analysis of the communication force between the components of economic security (growth rate of component indices) of Luhansk, Donetsk regions and Ukraine (values of component indices). The results of multiple regression show a high bond density and, accordingly, the impact on Ukraine's economic security of such components of economic security in the Luhansk region, as macroeconomic, food, investment and innovation, demographic and such components of economic security of the Donetsk region as financial, industrial, foreign economic. A comparative calculation of the integral values of economic security of Donetsk, Luhansk regions and Ukraine as a whole was made. The direct positive impact of the level of economic security of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the level of economic security of Ukraine was identified, which is further evidence of the significant impact of destabilizing the situation in Donbas on the national economy of the country. Empirically assessed the dependence of ukraine's economic security components on the economic security components of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, conducted the results of multiple regression of dependence of Ukraine's economic security on the components of economic security of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The indicators and characteristics of economic security of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the impact of their economies on the state economic security of the state as a whole were studied. The author's methodology calculated the integral values of economic security of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and it was identified that external hybrid aggression had a greater impact on the deterioration of economic security components.