Rupture segmentation on the East Anatolian fault (Turkey) controlled by along-strike variations in long-term slip rates in a structurally complex fault system

Abstract

The East Anatolian fault in Turkey exhibits along-strike rupture segmentation, typically resulting in earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) up to 7.5 that are confined to individual segments. However, on 6 February 2023, a catastrophic Mw 7.8 earthquake struck near Kahramanmaraş (southeastern Turkey), defying previous expectations by rupturing multiple segments spanning over 300 km and overcoming multiple geometric complexities. We explore the mechanics of successive single- and multi-segment ruptures using numerical models of the seismic cycle calibrated to historical earthquake records and geodetic observations of the 2023 doublet. Our model successfully reproduces the observed historical rupture segmentation and the rare occurrence of multi-segment earthquakes. The segmentation pattern is influenced by variations in long-term slip rate along strike across the kinematically complex fault network between the Arabian and Anatolian plates. Our physics-based seismic cycle simulations shed light on the long-term variability of earthquake size that shapes seismic hazards.