The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events

Abstract

This chapter uses the author's applied holistic mathematical model (AHMM) to support geopolitical analysis (GA) activities and decision-making in the context of eXtreme crisis (XC), like the one that has been striking Lebanon for more than five decades. GA needs a polymathic in-depth structure that can be abstracted with a generic GA Concept (GAC). The AHMM for GA (AHMM4GA) was already used to analyze the origins of the destabilization of the Middle East's area (MEA) and especially in the case of the directed wars on Lebanon. This destabilization resulted in extremely violent destruction and immigration of its minorities; especially in the period between the years 1943 and 1982, which was already analyzed by the author and was identified as phases I and II (or LDWPI and LDWPII). In this chapter, the focus is on the period between the years 1982 and 1990 (or LDWPIII), that followed the LDWPII.