The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events

Abstract

This chapter uses the author's applied holistic mathematical model (AHMM) to support geopolitical analysis (GA) activities and decision making. GA needs a concise generic structure that is abstracted with the GA Concept (GAC). The AHMM for GA (AHMM4GA) was already used to analyse the origins of the destabilization of the Middle East's Area (MEA) and especially in the case of Lebanon. This destabilization resulted in furious directed wars; where during the period between the years 1943 and 1975, which was already analysed by the author and was identified as phase I or LWDPI (Trad, 2019a). In this chapter the focus is on the period between the years 1975 and 1982 (or LWDPII), which the author identifies as phase II. Lebanon has deep Semito-Phoenicians' (SP) origins that has given it specific characteristics and problems.