Affiliation:
1. Centre d'Etudes Diplomatiques et Stratégiques de Paris (CEDS), France
Abstract
Thirty-three years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, one thing is obvious: The resolution of several international crises still depends on relations between the West and Russia. Like it or not, this geopolitical situation is a fact which, however, Americans and Europeans have not been duly taken into consideration since 1989. This crisis, which has not stopped, experienced a more expansive phase on February 24, 2022: it is the Russian special military operation for some leaders in Ukraine, Russian interventionism for others, and the war in Ukraine for still others. It is particularly notable in the soaring prices of raw materials essential for the functioning of industries. The Ukrainian crisis has revealed the fragilities of the dependence of certain States and Unions on raw materials, but also certain military fragilities. A critical situation therefore prevails, and many hypotheses remain perceptible given the existence of several scenarios and possible balances. This insight analyzes the current geopolitical situation between blocs and considers a possible vision of the blocs by 2050.
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