Causal Machine Learning in Social Impact Assessment

Abstract

Social impact assessment is a fundamental process to verify the achievement of the objectives of interventions and, consequently, to validate investments in the social area. Generally, this process is based on the analysis of the average effects of the intervention, which does not allow a detailed understanding of the individualization of these effects. Causal machine learning methods mark an evolution in causal inference, as they allow for a more heterogeneous assessment of the effects of interventions. Applying these methods to evaluate the impact of social projects and programs offers the advantage of improving the selection of target audiences and optimizing and personalizing future interventions. In this chapter, in a non-technical way, the authors explore classical causal inference methods to estimate average effects and new causal machine learning methods to evaluate heterogeneous effects. They address adapting the Uplift Modeling method to assess social interventions. They also address the advantages, limitations, and research needs for using these new techniques in social intervention.