Strategies and Scenario Planning

Abstract

The function of public agencies is to provide expectations, which are often unfulfilled in an increasingly complex environment. However, consistency and coherence usually presuppose a static environment, whereas the relationship between means and ends is dynamic, multi-layered, interdependent, and thus complex. The new approach aims to address and respond to a dynamic environment in relation to the content of rules and proposes solutions that can adapt to change in line with the principle of proportionality. The concept of emergence can be useful to describe the end of a decision-making process where the final decision is the result of many intertwined combinations that influence arguments and parts that were not included in the initial idea. To cope with this, legal norms should be more adapted to the elements of the future than is possible with classical law. This could be done with sunset clauses, legal experiments, flexible legal rules, decision-making algorithms, and simulations that could serve as inputs without legal force for the subsequent adoption of general legal rules.