Miscalculated Cause-and-Effect

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 22 came as a shock to the international community. As unexpected as it was, it contained multiple uncertainties related to the conflict, the impact on nearby states, and beyond as well. Questioning established strategies of maintaining territorial integrity. President Putin declared that the conflict with Ukraine was due to previous and forthcoming NATO expansion. The war was intended to prevent such an outcome. Over a year later, this aim had completely failed as Finland became the 31st member of NATO. This chapter explores the cause-and-effect relationship between Russian aggression and Ukraine and Finnish accession to NATO. It exposed the historic neutrality policy of Finland and how this changed due to a transformation in its security environment and threat perception.