Exploring Future Scenarios in Tourism

Abstract

Recognizing the substantial impact of external environmental factors on the tourism industry, obtaining insights into potential scenarios that the sector may encounter in the near future, particularly within a limited timeframe, is of utmost importance. The primary objective of this study was to envisage scenarios for the tourism sector over the next five years, striving for a comprehensive understanding of potential developments and challenges that could shape the industry's trajectory. Employing a two-phase qualitative methodology involving semi-structured interviews, the research first engaged with non-tourism experts and subsequently with tourism experts. Building on the identified key mid-term events—climate change and digital transformation—and employing a CATWOE framework analysis, two distinct scenarios for tourism development were crafted for the upcoming five years. This approach ensures a nuanced exploration of the influential factors and expert perspectives that contribute to the formulation of strategic insights for the industry's future.