Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Neural Network

Abstract

One of the important factors in generating low cost electrical power is the accurate forecasting of electricity consumption called load forecasting. The major objective of the load forecasting is to trim down the error between actual load and forecasted load. Due to the nonlinear nature of load forecasting and its dependency on multiple variables, the traditional forecasting methods are normally outperformed by artificial intelligence techniques. In this research paper, a robust short term load forecasting technique for one to seven days ahead is introduced based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and Levenberg Marquardt (LM) neural network forecast model, where the PSO and LM algorithm are used for the training process of neural network. The proposed methods are tested to predict the load of the New England Power Pool region's grid and compared with the existing techniques using mean absolute percentage errors to analyze the performance of the proposed methods. Forecast results confirm that the proposed LM and PSO-based neural network schemes outperformed the existing techniques.