Psychological Effects of Dominant Responses to Early Warning Alerts

Abstract

Earthquake-related behaviors in Mexico and Japan have highlighted the need to better understand responses to demanding alerting scenarios. Both countries appear to have benefitted from an established early earthquake warning system for several years. However, recent alert responses documented in these settings have been unlikely to protect residents from death or severe injury. This represents a gap between alerting system investments and effectiveness which, among other implications, could result in very large numbers of avoidable injuries and even deaths. To help better understand and address this gap, the current paper presents a theoretical explanation of why alerted residents have responded in the ways that they did. Behavioral and cognitive theories are discussed towards an integrated but simple model of alert response behavior that can be used to guide further research. Challenges and opportunities for this further research are also outlined.