Affiliation:
1. University of Edinburgh, UK
Abstract
The inherent uncertainty in information about the Earth's subsurface requires experts to interpret and reach judgements about geological data based on their individual experience and expertise. This is particularly true for the geological storage of CO2 in subsurface saline aquifers where the fate of the injected CO2 needs to be predicted far into the future. In this chapter, linear modelling is used in a structured elicitation exercise to estimate the relative influence of individual experts within a group and to assess whether a group consensus reflects a genuine shared opinion or is biased towards or away from any dominant member or subgroup. The method is applied to a real expert evaluation of the carbon storage potential of a siliciclastic formation. This reveals herding behaviour amongst the experts, and levels of inter-expert influence that are undue given individual experts' levels of expertise, though neither phenomena was apparent during the meeting.
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