“Reverse Engineering” in Econophysics

Abstract

The work presented here is a paradigm of EconoPhysics, i.e. of research in the area of finance and economics by applying physical models, in this case chaos theory. A specific analysis of a macroeconomic model proposed by Vosvrda is presented. The Vosvrda model is an idealized macroeconomic model, combining the savings of households, Gross Domestic Product and the foreign capital inflow. It is simulated by three autonomous differential equations. According to this model, there are six parameters, having their values regulating the system behavior (parameters of Vosvdra). Using artificial noisy data for simulating real data and using an inverse modelling procedure, the authors have fitted and tuned the parameters of Vosvdra differential equations to achieve more accurate solutions. The relevant resultant evaluation showed that the system is a chaotic one, even though for the same values proposed by Vosvrda. Finally, this chaotic behavior has provided the capability to expand the time horizon of the solution, thus achieving reliable forecasting for the system.