Predicting the Death Rate Around the World Due to COVID-19 Using Regression Analysis

Abstract

Nowadays, COVID-19 is considered to be the biggest disaster that the world is facing. It has created a lot of destruction in the whole world. Due to this COVID-19, analysis has been done to predict the death rate and infected rate from the total population. To perform the analysis on COVID-19, regression analysis has been implemented by applying the differential equation and ordinary differential equation (ODE) on the parameters. The parameters taken for analysis are the number of susceptible individuals, the number of Infected Individuals, and the number of Recovered Individuals. This work will predict the total cases, death cases, and infected cases in the near future based on different reproductive rate values. This work has shown the comparison based on 4 different productive rates i.e. 2.45, 2.55, 2.65, and 2.75. The analysis is done on two different datasets; the first dataset is related to China, and the second dataset is associated with the world's data. The work has predicted that by 2020-08-12: 59,450,123 new cases and 432,499,003 total cases and 10,928,383 deaths.